![]() In addition, Payne agreed to pay a civil penalty of $25,000. Without admitting or denying the alleged violations, Payne consented to the entry of a permanent injunction against violations of Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933. The complaint also alleged that Payne failed to disclose that he received payments from members to promote members stock. In 1999, Payne settled with the SEC over a complaint alleging that on at least eight occasions, Wall Street Strategies recommended that its clients purchase members stock through recorded messages on its telephonic stock recommendation service. Payne is the chief executive officer and principal financial analyst of Wall Street Strategies, a stock market research firm he founded in 1991. ![]() Payne began his career on Wall Street as an analyst at E. Payne attended Minot State University and Central Texas College while in the service.Ĭareer Finance industry Payne (born 15 November 1962) is an American Fox Business Network financial journalist and host of Fox's Making Money with Charles Payne.Īt 17 years old, he enlisted in the United States Air Force and went on to serve as a security policeman stationed at Minot Air Force Base in Minot, North Dakota. However, junk still outperforms long bonds-at this point, that says risk on-but a cautious risk on with junk gapping lower and taking out summer lows (but holding March lows at 72.61).Charles V. The first chart shows you that a sell signal mean reversion as far as the ratio between long bonds and junk bonds signaled. How DBA (ags) and DBC (commodity index) do relative to the strong dollar and higher yields. How the retail and transportation sectors do (along with small caps) as they represent the “inside” of the US economy. Here are the signals we are waiting for before overly committing to a bias.Īs we wrote over the weekend, how the junk bonds (high yield high debt bonds), do independently, and how they perform against the long bonds (TLT). Hopefully, that also means you are waiting for certain signals to help you commit to one way or another. If you are finding yourself fluctuating between bullishness and bearishness, then congratulations! Mish’s Daily: 3 Key Relationships to Help Assess Market Direction However, it does tend to stress everyone out. So, if our Grandparents struggle, could other areas hold up? Sure. XRT sits right above the 80-month but remember, it never cleared the 23-month. We can surmise that should IWM fail to hold this MA by the end of October, darker times are coming.ġ0 years from 2010-2020 IWM was in good shape which although underperforming QQQ, which told us the economy was hanging in there and dips could be bought.įor 2 months IWM closed below the 80-month MA in 2020 (Covid), then came right back above it by May 2020. The 80-month moving average (green line) is a longer-term business cycle or about 6-7 years.īesides the blip during covid, IWM has not BROKE that 80-month MA since 2010. Now, along with Retail XRT, both IWM and XRT-Granddad and Grandma of the Economic Modern Family-have a new story to tell. Then, after a calendar range reset, we warned about “Sell in July and Go Away” once IWM entered August and could not hold those gains. The Russell 2000 (IWM) spent one month (July) above the 23-month MA. We began the year examining the 23-month moving averages in all the indices and major market sectors.īuy anything that cleared the blue line (2-year business cycle), which we explained was a good reflection of a cycle within a cycle (6-7 year cycles are typical).Īfter all, after an unusual 2020-2022, from 2022-2024 we thought that any index or sector that broke out was showing signs of an intermediate expansion.Īnd any index or sector that could not clear the blue line, was not only a warning about how long an expansion could last, but also an indication of inherent problems in the economy and market. Mish’s Daily: Time to Talk 6-7 Year Market Business Cycles
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